…from this Gallup poll if I were a supporter of Mayor Giuliani’s:
According to a Jan. 5-7, 2007 USA Today/Gallup poll, three-quarters of Republicans nationwide (including independents who lean to the Republican Party) are unsure whether Giuliani favors or opposes civil unions for same-sex couples (he favors them, though he opposes gay marriage). Nearly two-thirds are unsure whether he is “pro-life” or “pro-choice” on abortion (he was staunchly pro-choice as mayor).
According to the poll, 75 percent of Republicans are unsure of his stance on civil unions and 64 are unsure of his position on abortion. Only 17 percent know his true position on civil unions (he supports them) and only 20 percent know he is pro-choice.
Here is the next interesting portion:
The same January poll asked Republicans who they would prefer to see win if the Republican nomination narrows down to just Giuliani and McCain. Given this choice, 50% prefer Giuliani while 42% choose McCain. Notably, Giuliani does particularly well with self-described conservative Republicans (52% for Giuliani vs. 39% for McCain), while “moderate” Republicans prefer McCain (52% vs. 43%).
However, when Republicans are told in the context of the survey that Giuliani supports same-sex civil unions and holds a pro-choice position on abortion, the net effect on their expressed chances of backing him is negative. Knowing his social views, more than 4 in 10 Republicans indicate a reduced willingness to support Giuliani. Twenty-five percent say they would be less willing to vote for him, and 18% say they would rule out voting for him entirely.
And to be honest, it’s even worse than that for the Mayor’s camp. This poll was remarkably deferential to his positions. Rather than telling voters that he opposes a ban on “gay marriage,” it simply said he supports civil unions. That’s a much more reasonable-sounding position. I’d bet you a chocolate donut that if the conservative Republicans who support him knew that, even more would desert him.