I, for one, am happy. Not only have I swum two miles this week with my new iPod, I also worked out with friends today. I’m bound and determined to get in shape this year, even though the only New Year’s Resolution is one from 2005: to be the person who has the gum or mints instead of the person who asks for gum or mints. (Test me anytime. I’ve got one or the other. Sometimes both.)
At any rate, Geraghty does not disappoint today. Here is his scoop from someone at the Romney camp:
Team Romney had expected 75,000 caucus goers to show up last night, and had set an internal goal of getting 25,000 of them (or 30 percent) in order to win. They exceeded their goal, but did not anticipate the large turnout in excess of 100,000, especially among Evangelical Christians… Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush both lost in Iowa, but went on to win the nomination. Also, it is important to note that no GOP candidate with less than 18 percent in Iowa has gone on to win the nomination.
In New Hampshire, it comes down to Romney vs. McCain, with Huckabee nowhere in sight. A surging Obama helps Romney because he will siphon away independent voters in New Hampshire from McCain, which were crucial in his upset win over George Bush back in 2000. Right now, polls show that 60 percent of likely independent voters in New Hampshire support Obama. In order to win, McCain will have win back Republicans that he lost back in 2000, which has been made more difficult by his anti-conservative voting record since then in opposing the Bush tax cuts, proposing blanket amnesty for illegal aliens, and championing the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform law. Also, look for Mitt Romney to return to his “Mr. Fixit/Washington outsider” message over these next four days.
All is not lost, folks. Chin up.