The EFM Feature

Via the Competent Conservative. I saw the following Fox News panel discussing 2012:

As the good folks at the Competent Conservative note, the good news is that Charles Krauthammer and Kristen Powers both say that Mitt Romney has the best chance to beat Obama in 2012. The bad news is that Kristen Powers believes that Mitt Romney will have a tough time getting out of the primaries “because of the evangelicals.”
I’m not going to be some kind of Pollyanna and say that Kristen is completely wrong. As 2008 proved, the evangelical vote can block the Governor in key states (Iowa, South Carolina, etc.), but it’s absolutely critical to understand that evangelical opposition to Governor Romney is not a naturally occurring phenomenon. It happened largely in 2008 because one candidate decided to play the religion card early and often to court his natural constituency. Even worse, that candidate seemed to have a special disdain for Mitt.
As I see the 2012 race breaking down, two candidates will have equally strong appeal for evangelicals: Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee. With Governor Palin in the race, Huckabee won’t be able to essentially corner the market on the evangelical constituency, and he has already proven that his appeal outside his base is quite limited. After all, he won only 8% of the non-evangelical vote in 2008.
At the same time, Mitt will continue to get a substantial minority of evangelical voters (he won 25% in 2008) and the lion’s share of former McCain voters.
But of course, all of this is idle speculation (though enjoyable). After all, who knows what the political landscape will look like in two years? In the meantime, all we can do is try to convince Mitt that he’s got grassroots support out there. So, if you live anywhere close to New Orleans, and you support Mitt, email Nancy.
Do it.


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