I know you’ve heard this argument: “Mitt may be steady in the polls, but he rarely gets over 25%. That means he’s done. No one wins with 25% of the primary vote.” You might want to respond with a question of your own: When was the first time in the 2007-2008 primary season that John McCain polled over 25%?
The answer is found in this chart. McCain became the clear front-runner only in January, 2008, and then by polling a mere 34%. During an equivalent time period in 2007, he was polling only in the low to mid-teens.
Crowded primary fields mean low polling numbers for everyone. When the actual voting starts, the field narrows quickly and polling numbers shift substantially. And remember — in life and politics, nothing succeeds like success. If Mitt can win some of the early contests watch for his numbers to move up very quickly.