The EFM Feature
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For the first time since the start of the primary season a decisive victory is in sight.  If Mitt can win Ohio (or Tennessee and Ohio), then the fat lady will clear her wide throat, stride onto the stage, and begin her concert.  At that point, the delegate math will be too daunting and Mitt’s momentum too great to stop him.

But what happens if he doesn’t win Ohio or Tennessee?  After all, the polls are within the margin of error, and the Tennessee polls make Santorum a narrow favorite.  Does that flip the momentum once again?

It’s doubtful.  Even if he loses Ohio and Tennessee, he’ll likely win most of the Super Tuesday delegates.  If he wins most of the Super Tuesday delegates, then either Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich would have dominate the rest of the primary season to secure the nomination.

Even when Mitt has been down, he hasn’t fallen far.  When he’s been up, he’s won key states, including Florida and Arizona in landslides.  As his delegate count mounts, his opponents’ window closes . . . slowly but surely.  Tonight could end the race, or it could “just” be another giant step towards the nomination.  Either way, I’m happy.  While nothing is certain in politics until the votes are counted, I’m feeling optimistic.

EFM readers, here’s my Super Tuesday prediction.  Leave yours in the comments.

Mitt wins: Virginia, Vermont, Massachusetts, Idaho, North Dakota, Alaska, and Ohio (in a nailbiter).

Rick wins:  Oklahoma.

Newt wins: Georgia

Too close to call:  Tennessee (but if you force me to choose, I say Santorum by less than 2 points).

We shall see.  The first polls close in less than three hours.

Comments and Discussion

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24 Responses to Is Mitt on the Verge of a Decisive Victory?

  1. Ryan in Georgia says:

    I say we win 8 out of 10. My poor Georgia will go sadly to Newt for no other reason than he was a congressman here and OK to Santorum. Momentum is for Mitt in both OH and TN putting him over the top in both and either way he’ll have the most delegates in both because of Santorum’s delegate debacle. It’s going to be a good day no matter how you cut it.

  2. Don says:

    Obama will chew up and spit out Mittens at your feet, he cant go head to head Debate with Ron Paul….. how do you think hes going to do against Obama ? geezus folks the gop seems to want Obama to win again

  3. RC says:

    Mitt Romney – (in order, from high to low)
    Virginia – 69%
    Massachusetts – 67%
    Vermont – 55%
    Idaho – 47%
    North Dakota – 38%
    Alaska – 35%
    Ohio – 4%
    Tennessee – 2%

    Santorum: Oklahoma – 41% (Romney at 29%)
    Gingrich: Georgia – 47% (Romney at 27%)

    Total Delegates for Romney on Super Tuesday: 215

  4. Joe says:

    Mitt wins: Virginia, Vermont, Massachusetts, Idaho

    Paul wins: North Dakota, Alaska

    Rick wins: Oklahoma, Tennessee

    Newt wins: Georgia

    Too close to call: Ohio (but if you force me to choose, I say Santorum by less than 2 points).

  5. RC says:

    Don, put a sock in it. Are you a brother to Larry? It “appears” that you have a burr stuck somewhere and you can’t get it out and you are beginning to show the hurt. Well, let me help you to try and get that burr out – repeat after me, “President Mitt Romney, President Mitt Romney, President Mitt Romney.” That certainly has a nice ring to it. See, I bet I created a smile from you already. We love you Don, burr and all.

  6. Gramajane says:

    Have you not heard that Ron Paul has been grainy his people to get elected to hijack the vote- no matter what the people they are supposed to represent voted- they are committed to vote Ron Paul — for our own good as THEY know better!! This has been documented by the news and Ron Paul even said probably nest not to let the secret out!! What can be done!???

  7. Liz says:

    The French fam is clearly doing their part. Ron Paul, Newt, AND Santy are career politicians. Romney is the man and tonight will be a good night. Ohio will be the most interesting.

  8. RC says:

    Mitt Romney – (in order, from high to low)
    Virginia – 69% / 60% / -9%
    Massachusetts – 67% / 72% / +5%
    Vermont – 55% / 40% / -15%
    Idaho – 47% / 62% / +15%
    North Dakota – 38% / 24% / -14%
    Alaska – 35% / 33% / -2%
    Ohio – 4% / 1% / -3%
    Tennessee – 2% / -9% / -11%

    Santorum: Oklahoma – 41% (Romney at 29% / 28% / -1%)
    Gingrich: Georgia – 47% (Romney at 27% / 26% / -1%)

    Total Delegates for Romney on Super Tuesday: 215 / 217 / +2

    (I was only off by -3.6% average) I am very happy from Super Tuesday’s results. The media can spin it all they want, but they cannot change the votes. Mitt was the big winner yesterday.

  9. Terry says:

    Why Super Tuesday Wasn’t So Super for Mitt (according to the MSM)

    “Romney Inches Forward” reads one Fox News headline.

    Mitt’s big night–according to some in the MSM–isn’t really so big. Oh, sure, Mitt may have won with this mostly conservative group or that moderate group, but…*gasp*…he didn’t do well at all with the small-in-numbers, rock hard true conservatives, or those whose income falls within a narrowly defined range, or folks who own black dogs that bark every morning between 6:00AM and 6:15AM. Never mind that Mitt emerged with more delegates than the other three put together. Let’s shove that minor fact aside and consider something else: there’s trouble brewing in the background for Mitt.

    Santorum had 3 wins on Super Tuesday, and has announced that he is in the race until the end. Also, Santorum adviser John Brabender has claimed that if Mitt can’t win a southern state, he shouldn’t even be in the race. Hogan Gidley, another Santorum adviser, stated that Mitt can’t get to the magic 1,144 delegates required to win the nomination unless Santorum drops out, which won’t happen, of course.

    As I said, trouble in the background.

    Added to the above is the Newtster, he of the huge one state Super Tuesday win. Newt commented before Super Tuesday that if Mitt didn’t sweep all 10 states, he should drop out of the race because his failure would prove that voters don’t like him (oh, the agony). And if that wasn’t bad enough news for Mitt, Newtster has announced that his one win on Super Tuesday was all the encouragement he needed to stay in the race.

    Yes, it’s a pretty bleak picture that’s being painted: southern states troubles, the unattainable 1,144, barking dogs, one state wonders, and no 10 state sweep.

    Despite all that pressure however, Mitt Romney, with his majority of the delegates, will continue to “inch forward”.

  10. ccr says:

    Mitt did GREAT in Oklahoma where Santorum was ahead by 25% two weeks ago and just loses by 6%. According to CNN, Mitt gets ONE less delegate!

    This is a state where a 6th grade girl tells her Mormon friend: “You and your mom are OK and good, but the rest of the Mormons are BAD!’ Tell me religious bigotry wasn’t part of the vote in OK and TN…………and has been/will be in other southern states because THAT kind of “hate” has been taught for 30+ years!

    North Dakota,……is that because of OPEN caucuses and LOTS o Dems?? I understand they have lots of churches in ND?? True?

    I’m surprised Santorum won by 9% in TN…………

  11. Liz says:

    Wish Breitbart were still around to battle the MSM. Fascinating times we live in. Nonetheless, Romney don’t need no stinkin’ headlines, he has the people and the facts in his corner.

  12. Lynn says:

    We live in Arkansas right on the Oklahoma border. My husband is an elementary principal and one of his teachers lives in Oklahoma. She whispered to him that she needed to leave early so she could go vote for Mitt Romney in her precinct in Oklahoma. He told her, “You don’t have to whisper about it.” She replied, “I do around here!” She knows that her vote was unpopular in this area. She is a strong baptist, but she said that a lot of people can’t overlook Mitt’s religion. She personally feels that the moral character of Mitt Romney should be what people look at. That and the fact that he is very qualified to fix this country. I look forward to voting for Mitt when Arkansas votes. I didn’t get to in 2008.

    • Jenny B says:

      Thanks for sharing, Lynn. That is so true to life around here. I’m in TX, and I see exactly where you are coming from. I don’t have a Mitt yard sign yet, but I’m betting it won’t be so popular with the neighbors when we get ours :) Go Mitt!!! I look forward to voting for him here in Texas.

  13. Nelson A. Moak says:

    Super Tuesday would have been a decisive victory for Mitt were it not for a few Super Wealthy donating millions to Super PAC s keeping Newt’s and Rick’s campaign’s financially afloat. With 55.08% of all delegates selected so far, and all other candidates COMBINED have but 44.02%, Romney would be the presumptive Republican Nominee.

  14. Phil says:

    The worst part about the MSM spin on Super Tuesday is that the right-wing news sources are taking up their spin and spreading it as gospel.

    Our nation is in dire straits and the GOP is simply throwing in the towel. The conservative talking heads have also shown their true colors. They are buying in to the left wing media message about Romney and they’re shoving it down our throats. They aren’t patriots – they’re ego driven salesmen with no consideration for what damage they’ve been doing this election cycle. I used to love talk radio – I thought it was “stimulating.” Now I see I’ve been pawned and taken advantage of. I’ll be heading to the library to check out books on tape from now on. No more talk radio for me. I prefer not to be brainwashed with vitriolic garbage.

    The Romney campaign needs to release an ad directed at the right-wing talkers, Santorum, and Gingrich and it should be titled, “Et tu Brute?”

    I’m all for the GOP holding to (and even moving toward) its more conservative principles – particularly fiscally speaking. But I don’t see why Romney isn’t the guy to do that. No one has made a coherent argument as to why Romney can’t do that. All I hear is the false flip-flopping charges, and the “he’s not passionate enough” claims. In fact he’s the best guy to do champion our conservative values! (Just ask Santorum in ’08 and Gingrich in ’10). And yet the ubber-conservatives want to glom onto what? The candidate who’s supposedly MORE anti-abortion than Romney but can’t win the general? Or the guy who’s supposedly MORE Reagan-esque than Romney but will be raked over the coals by his Democrat buddies come November? Ridiculous.

    The funny thing is that I truly sympathize with the Tea Party, and other like-minded groups, yet there is this streak of extremism that I can honestly say makes me quite uncomfortable. Seriously, how else can you explain that in 2008 Romney was the “Conservative Alternative” and won in rural areas all over the country and now in 2012 he’s all of the sudden “not conservative enough”?

    I mean really! You’ve got to be kidding me! He’s the same bloody person he was four years ago! And now that the Country is tanking, the primary voters (acting at the whim of conservative talkers and other extremists) are going to abandon our best hope of defeating the most socialist President since Woodrow Wilson?! How can this be rationally explained? It can’t, and that’s why I’m so irrationally upset.

    In 2008, Romney had more delegates in his pocket than Santorum does at this point of the race and yet he stepped down on February 7th in order for the party to unite and focus on the General election. In 2012 the remaining candidates are going to do irreparable harm to Romney. They will stay in the race for whatever delusional or arrogate reason and they will suck the GOP funding dry and the GOP will get slaughtered in November!

    In the General election, the nominee will go up against the democratic machine already bloodied, bruised and out of money. In a year when the GOP should have been able to trounce the current “occupier” in the White house they are self destructing. The candidates in particular are selling the GOP’s inheritance for a mess of pottage.

    Go ahead everyone – take us to a brokered convention! We’ll see how that turns out after the GOP has been milked for every penny and slandered to the ends of the earth. And then we’ll nominate Palin at the convention to go up against Obama and we’ll really see what an butt-kicking feels like! And all for what? Because Romney (though plenty conservative in ’08) wasn’t conservative enough in ’12? Whatever! This election cycle is going to drive me to drink!

  15. RC says:

    So here’s the basic point…..
    Neither Santorum nor Gingrich nor Paul can win this nomination prior to the convention unless one of them gets two-thirds of the remaining delegates. That is not going to happen. It is very unlikely that even together Santorum and Gingrich can win two-thirds of the remaining delegates. So the only way either man can win the Republican nomination is by triggering a deadlock, denying Romney a majority and fighting it out on the convention floor.

    That would be OK if the convention were in early July. But it is to be held during the very last week of August. If the Republican Party does not have a nominee until Sept. 1 and we have to spend the next six months watching these candidates beating the living hell out of one another, you can kiss our chances of defeating Obama goodbye.

    So the bottom line is that Santorum’s and Gingrich’s only path to the nomination is to create a situation that virtually guarantees an Obama victory. Is it worth it, at that price? Can Santorum or Gingrich credibly challenge my math? Can they really maintain that deadlock is good for our party and that it is OK not to have a nominee until Sept. 1? Are they seriously going to argue that another six months of candidate-bashing is not going to irreparably injure our fortunes in November?

    Already, both Gallup and Rasmussen have Obama’s job approval back down to 45 percent. But trial match-ups have him beating Romney 50 percent to 44 percent, and Santorum and Gingrich by similar or larger margins. So why are 5 percent of the voters backing a president of whose job performance they disapprove? Because of the candidate-bashing in our Republican primaries.

    As Romney’s victories mount, it will become increasingly obvious to voters that they have to back him or precipitate a deadlock that would be lethal. His victories will be more frequent and his margins greater.

    It is one thing to say that Santorum or Gingrich has less of a chance to defeat Obama than Romney does. That’s a matter of opinion and political theory. But it is quite another to note that the very process that either Newt or Rick needs to take to win the nomination will, by itself, destroy its value and our chances of winning.

    All this difficulty stems from the incomprehensible decision of the Republican National Committee to allow half of the delegates to be chosen by proportional representation. This system is akin to the old requirement that a candidate get two-thirds of the delegates in that it promotes deadlock, elongates the process and harms our chances of winning. Next cycle, please, let’s switch back to winner-take-all primaries.

    But, for now, it’s getting to be time for Santorum, Gingrich and Paul to say goodbye. – Dick Morris

  16. ignoramus says:

    Not to fear. I spent Super Tuesday with the CNN reporter Shannon Travis and Idaho was late reporting because although Mitt got 67% of the vote, it was a caucus and the rules say for each ballot the lowest 15% candidates will be eliminated until one candidate has 50% of the vote. The were 9,500 Lincoln pennies cast were weighed and it was seen that the weight of Mitt’s vote exactly equaled the combined weight of the other 4 candidates so neither rule of caucus could be executed until all pennies were counted, an unintended consequence. almost 10,000 people waited patiently for 3 hours as every penny was counted and Mitt won by a hair in the largest caucus in recorded history and it was the first ever caucus in Idaho which had a commemorative coin minted from the creation of the Territory by Lincoln exactly 149 years ago. I own 12 of those coins, now and it was the most exciting thing I have done in a long time.

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